Mortgage rates react continuously to changing expectations about inflation, economic growth and Federal Reserve policy. During the week of August 24–28, several important economic reports could influence Treasury yields, mortgage-backed securities and consumer borrowing costs.
Follow the releases as they occur on our live Economic Calendar, then return here for updates explaining what the results may mean for mortgage rates.
Tuesday, August 25: Housing and Consumer Confidence
New Home Sales — 7:00 a.m. Pacific / 10:00 a.m. Eastern
New Home Sales measure the annualized pace of newly constructed homes sold during July. Beyond housing demand, the report provides clues about buyer confidence, construction activity and the effect current mortgage rates are having on affordability.
The Census Bureau has scheduled the July report for August 25. View the official Census Bureau schedule.
Possible rate reaction:
- Stronger-than-expected sales could suggest the economy and housing market remain resilient, potentially pushing Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher.
- Weaker sales could reinforce concerns about affordability and slower economic growth, which may help rates move lower.
- A result close to expectations may create little lasting movement.
Consumer Confidence — 7:00 a.m. Pacific / 10:00 a.m. Eastern
Consumer Confidence measures how households feel about current business and employment conditions and what they expect in the months ahead. Confidence matters because consumer spending represents a major share of economic activity.
The Conference Board has scheduled its next Consumer Confidence release for August 25. View the release information.
Possible rate reaction:
- Strong confidence can support expectations for continued spending, economic growth and inflation—potentially negative for mortgage rates.
- Falling confidence can point toward softer future spending and may be favorable for rates.
Wednesday, August 26: The Week’s Biggest Data Morning
Several major reports will arrive simultaneously at 5:30 a.m. Pacific. That combination creates the potential for meaningful early-morning rate volatility.
Personal Income, Consumer Spending and PCE Inflation
The Personal Income and Outlays report shows how household income and spending are changing. It also contains the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes.
The Federal Reserve measures its longer-term 2% inflation objective using the PCE price index, making this one of the week’s most important releases. Learn about the Fed’s PCE inflation measure.
Possible rate reaction:
- Hotter-than-expected PCE inflation would likely place upward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
- Cooler inflation could strengthen expectations for easier Federal Reserve policy and help rates improve.
- Strong spending combined with persistent inflation would generally be unfavorable for rates.
- Softer spending and moderating inflation would ordinarily be the most rate-friendly combination.
Second Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP
Gross Domestic Product measures the economy’s total production. This will be the government’s second estimate for the second quarter and may revise the initial estimate.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release both GDP and Personal Income and Outlays on August 26 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. View the BEA release schedule.
Possible rate reaction:
- An upward GDP revision could strengthen growth expectations and push rates higher.
- A meaningful downward revision could increase concerns about economic slowing and help rates move lower.
- Markets will also examine corporate profits and the underlying sources of growth.
Durable Goods Orders
Durable Goods Orders track demand for products expected to last at least three years, including vehicles, machinery, computers and aircraft. The headline number can be volatile, so markets often pay special attention to business-equipment orders excluding transportation and defense.
Possible rate reaction:
- Strong core business orders may indicate continued investment and economic strength, potentially pushing rates higher.
- Weak orders may signal slower business activity and could be favorable for rates.
Thursday, August 27: Employment and Trade Signals
Initial Jobless Claims — 5:30 a.m. Pacific / 8:30 a.m. Eastern
Initial Jobless Claims count newly filed unemployment-benefit applications. Because the report is released weekly, it provides one of the timeliest readings on labor-market conditions.
Possible rate reaction:
- Lower claims generally indicate a strong labor market and may place upward pressure on rates.
- Higher claims can signal emerging labor weakness and may help rates move lower.
- A single week can be noisy, so investors will also examine the four-week trend.
Advance Economic Indicators
This report provides early information on trade, wholesale inventories and retail inventories. These components can affect future GDP estimates.
Possible rate reaction:
The report usually has less influence than PCE inflation or employment data, but a major surprise could alter growth expectations. Stronger activity may pressure rates higher, while weaker activity may support lower yields.
Friday, August 28: Federal Reserve Guidance
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at 7:00 a.m. Pacific / 10:00 a.m. Eastern. View the Federal Reserve’s August calendar.
Markets will listen closely for comments about inflation, employment, economic growth and the future path of monetary policy.
Possible rate reaction:
- A more inflation-focused or “higher for longer” message could push Treasury yields and mortgage rates upward.
- Greater concern about economic weakness or openness to reducing policy rates could help mortgage rates improve.
- Unexpected language could produce the week’s sharpest market movement.
What Mortgage Borrowers Should Watch
Economic reports do not move rates simply because the numbers are “good” or “bad.” Markets react to how the results compare with expectations—and whether they change the outlook for inflation, growth or Federal Reserve policy.
The most favorable combination for mortgage rates would generally be:
- Cooling PCE inflation
- Moderate or weakening consumer spending
- A softer GDP revision
- Slower business investment
- Some easing in labor-market conditions
- Federal Reserve language suggesting less inflation pressure
Stronger growth, persistent inflation and a firmly hawkish Federal Reserve message could produce the opposite result.
Mixed reports can create rapid intraday swings, especially when inflation remains elevated while economic activity begins to slow.
Follow the Data Throughout the Week
Our Real Estate Finance & Market Intelligence page brings together live Treasury yields, the economic calendar, mortgage-market updates and our analysis in one place.
Check the live information before major releases, then return for clear explanations of what changed, why markets reacted and what the movement could mean for homebuyers, homeowners and real estate investors.
Mortgage rates can change without notice and vary by loan program, borrower qualifications and market conditions. This material is educational and is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of any particular interest rate.
